Key Points
- The broad retail sector has lagged the market in 2025, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF down slightly and below its 200-day moving average heading into the holidays.
- Target, Abercrombie & Fitch, Ulta Beauty, and Victoria's Secret have shown strong relative strength this year, backed by earnings beats and raised full-year guidance.
- Analysts hold mostly favorable ratings on these standout retailers, with price targets implying further upside as the holiday shopping season approaches.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s One Stock Retirement Plan
The final stretch of the year has historically been favorable for the stock market, and few sectors are as tied to the calendar as retail. With the holiday shopping season, from Black Friday through the December rush, now coming into view, retailers are heading into their most important stretch of the year. In each of the past couple of years, the retail sector has seen a seasonal tailwind between October and December. If that pattern repeats, a handful of names look especially well-positioned to benefit.
The broad retail sector has actually lagged the market this year. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT), the group's benchmark, is slightly down year-to-date and recently slipped below its 200-day moving average. But beneath that underperforming sector average, several individual names have shown genuine relative strength, vastly outperforming the sector ETF, many peers, and even the S&P 500 benchmark. Those are the names worth watching most closely into year-end, so let’s look at several below.
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: The Sector Barometer
Before the individual names, the XRT is worth watching as the gauge for the entire theme into year-end. The fund holds 83 retail stocks on an equal-weighted basis, spanning everything from department stores and apparel to internet and grocery retail, which makes it the cleanest single read on whether the seasonal rally is materializing across the group.
Right now, the picture is fairly mixed. XRT is down about 1.4% year-to-date and recently broke below its 200-day moving average. That’s a clear sign the sector has been underperforming and out of vogue. But that is precisely what makes the setup interesting heading into the year's strongest seasonal window. A beaten-down, range-bound sector heading into its most important shopping season has room to surprise to the upside if consumer spending holds up.
For investors who want broad exposure to a potential festive-season bounce without betting on any single retailer, XRT is the diversified way to play it. The key will be whether it can reclaim that 200-day moving average near $86 as the quarter progresses.
Target: The Turnaround Finding Its Footing
Target (NYSE: TGT) has become one of the retail sector's standout stories this year, with the stock up roughly 57% as a genuine turnaround takes hold. After a difficult stretch, the company's renewed focus on pricing is starting to pay off, with recent reports noting that its price cuts are working and bringing customers back.
The turnaround is showing up in the results, which matter most. In its second-quarter report on Aug. 19, the company beat both sales and earnings expectations and raised its full-year guidance, with comparable sales climbing 3.8%, well above the roughly 2.4% Wall Street had penciled in. The holiday setup only adds to the appeal, with improving fundamentals and major sector relative strength. Target is a holiday shopping destination in its own right, and it recently rolled out its list of top toys for the season, a perennial driver of festive traffic.
The stock trades at a reasonable 16 times earnings and pays a strong 3.02% dividend yield, a rarity among growth-oriented retailers. While the analyst consensus is Hold, with an average price target only modestly above the current price, the turnaround momentum and seasonal tailwind make Target a clear name to watch. Q3 earnings land on Nov. 18, right as the shopping season kicks into gear.
Abercrombie & Fitch: Cheap, and Backed by Analysts
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) has been one of the more impressive retail comeback stories in recent years, and the momentum has continued, with the stock up more than 13% this year. The apparel retailer, which has revitalized both its namesake brand and its Hollister chain, has drawn steady analyst support in recent weeks, including a reiterated Buy rating from BTIG Research and an Outperform rating from BMO Capital Markets, which initiated coverage on the name on Sept. 8.
That enthusiasm stems from a string of genuinely impressive quarterly results, with its most recent report on Aug. 26. The company reported Q2 fiscal year 2027 (FY2027) earnings of $4.17 per share, well above the $1.99 analysts expected, notched its 15th consecutive quarter of sales growth, and meaningfully raised its full-year outlook. What makes the stock especially interesting is the blend of that momentum with a cheap valuation. Abercrombie trades at roughly 12 times earnings, the lowest multiple on this list, with net margins above 10% and return on equity north of 33%. It carries a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target implying nearly 9% upside.
Technically, the stock also has one of the sector's more bullish setups. The stock has formed a textbook bullish consolidation below its 52-week high and has held up far better than the broader sector ahead of the festive season. Its Q3 FY2027 earnings are expected on Nov. 24 before the market opens.
Ulta Beauty: Turning the Corner Into the Season
Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) is the beauty-focused play on this list, and it is showing signs of turning higher at an opportune moment. Though the stock is still down just below 6% year-to-date, it has been staging a recovery and recently crossed back above its 200-day moving average. Technically, if momentum can continue to build above the 200-day, higher-timeframe momentum could pair well with the fundamental momentum that’s building too.
In its late-August Q2 FY2027 earnings report, Ulta beat on both the top and bottom lines, grew net sales 8.9% to roughly $3 billion, posted a 3.8% rise in comparable sales, and raised its full-year guidance across every key metric. Beauty has proven one of retail's more resilient categories, and Ulta's loyalty program and prestige brand partnerships make it a go-to destination for holiday gifting. As of Oct. 12, the stock has the strongest news sentiment on this list, a Moderate Buy consensus, and an average price target of $627.83, implying about 10% upside from current levels. With a beta below one and the business turning back in the right direction, Ulta may offer a compelling way to play seasonal beauty demand. Its next earnings report comes on Dec. 3, capturing the early holiday period.
Victoria's Secret: The Momentum Standout
Victoria's Secret (NYSE: VSXY) has been on a tear and may be the group's purest relative-strength play. The stock has surged almost 53% this year and has gained more than 9% in the past month alone, far outpacing the flat retail sector. The intimate-apparel retailer has staged a genuine brand revival, and the market has clearly taken notice.
In its Q2 2026 report released on Sept. 3, Victoria's Secret beat earnings estimates, grew revenue more than 10% to about $1.6 billion, and raised full-year guidance significantly. Looking ahead, analysts project nearly 23% earnings growth for the full year, the strongest on this list, and the stock still trades at a reasonable forward multiple under 18. The stock has a Moderate Buy consensus, with an average price target of $89.91, implying about 8% upside. One note of caution, though—the stock has a beta of 2.01, making it the most volatile name here, so it will potentially swing more sharply than its peers in both directions. But for investors or speculators looking for the strongest-momentum retailer heading into the festive season, VSXY stands out. It already reported earnings in early September, so its next real catalyst will be the holiday sales period itself.
What to Watch Into Year-End
Seasonality is never a guarantee, and a sector that has lagged all year will need genuine consumer strength to deliver a true festive-season rally. But the setup is definitely worth watching. The retail group heads into its most important quarter beaten down and arguably underappreciated, while a select group of names has shown the kind of relative strength that tends to lead when sentiment turns.
Whether through the diversified XRT or standout names like Target, Abercrombie, Ulta, and Victoria's Secret, retail is a corner of the market worth watching as the shopping season arrives.
Read this article online ›
The best investment opportunities don't wait. Get our research and stock ideas delivered straight to your smartphone—so you never miss a market-moving opportunity. Our text alerts ensure you see timely stock ideas and professional research reports instantly, whether you're in a meeting, commuting, or away from your desk.
Get Text Alerts from American Market News (free)
Comments
Post a Comment