 Dear Reader, Every so often a tiny company has a week so big the market cannot keep up. It may have just happened in aviation. In seven days at the end of June, one NYSE-listed company signed a marquee software customer, expanded its Palantir partnership, put an electric aircraft in the air over Hawaii, and cut its convertible debt principal by 64%. That company is Surf Air Mobility (NYSE:SRFM). It operates one of the largest commuter airlines in America, flying roughly 300,000 passengers a year and generating $109 million in revenue over the last twelve months. Yet the entire company trades at a market cap of roughly $82 million, less than one year of its own sales. The week’s headlines tell the story. Wheels Up signed as the first enterprise customer for its Palantir-powered SurfOS software, in a deal worth up to $12 million in subscription fees. Palantir then disclosed in an SEC filing that it more than doubled its stake last quarter, to 7.4% of the company. Palantir’s former dealmaker becomes Chairman of the Board this month. And BETA Technologies, the electric aircraft maker chosen in seven of eight new federal launch programs, began demonstration flights across the company’s Hawaii network, with Hawaiian Airlines supporting. The pre-revenue air-taxi names trade in the billions with zero passengers. This operator flies every day. See the full Surf Air Mobility (NYSE:SRFM) story and why this setup is gaining attention now. And remember to do your own research.
Additional Reading from MarketBeat.com
Why Exxon Could Be the Market's Next Big Comeback StockAuthored by Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 7/8/2026. 
Key Points
- Exxon's Q2 share price pullback presents a buying opportunity, as rebounding oil prices tied to renewed Iran supply disruptions are expected to boost profits and push shares to fresh highs.
- Exxon maintains an industry-leading capital return program, having distributed over $37 billion in 2025 through dividends and buybacks, and is on track to become a Dividend King.
- Exxon forecasts a $4 billion sequential earnings boost from oil price movements in Q2, with analysts projecting 125% year-over-year earnings growth despite risks like geopolitical and climate factors.
- Special Report: Problems at SpaceX: time to get out?
Exxon’s (NYSE: XOM) second-quarter price pullback looks like an attractive entry point, as the move is tied to oil’s decline and prices appear poised to rebound. The tenuous truce with Iran is apparently over, leaving its oil supply embargoed and Persian Gulf capacity back in a locked-in status. Oil prices may not revisit their recent highs, but they are expected to remain above long-term averages for the foreseeable future, underpinning healthy cash flows for Exxon and other energy producers.
In this scenario, Exxon is positioned not only for windfall Q2 profits but also for elevated profitability into next year, supporting its industry-leading capital return. A rebound in the share price could send it to a fresh all-time high, a view supported by the technical setup. Down significantly from its early 2026 highs, XOM is deeply oversold, with a MACD convergence in play. This suggests the recent highs will at least be retested and that fresh highs are likely. Exxon’s Industry-Leading Capital Return Is Safer Than EverExxon’s dividend yield isn’t the highest among energy companies, but its total return is viewed as industry-leading because of its scale, consistency, and growth trajectory. Capital return in 2025 topped $37 billion, with $17.2 billion paid in dividends and the remainder in share buybacks. Its dividend payout is the second-highest among S&P 500 companies and ranks fifth in corporate history. Investors should not expect a sudden increase in capital return volume, as management is taking a more prudent approach. Instead of adjusting payouts periodically with oil prices, Exxon aims to sustain a semi-aggressive return over time regardless of the oil cycle. The impact of 2026’s oil price spike is that Exxon’s cash flow and balance sheet are strengthened, bolstering the capital return outlook while also enabling reinvestment in new technology, efficiency, and future production. The key takeaway is that this highly reliable capital return yields approximately 2.9% as of early July. The distribution has grown annually for more than 40 years, and Exxon is on track to be crowned a Dividend King. That milestone is more than a title; it could increase the stock’s appeal to buy-and-hold investors and potentially draw capital from Dividend King index funds. Exxon’s buyback activity reduced its share count by an average of 3.8% year over year as of Q1 2026. Exxon Sees Multi-Billion Dollar Boost in Q2Exxon has already foreshadowed a solid Q2 report, issuing a forecast of a $4 billion sequential impact from oil price movements, or roughly 50% of Q1 adjusted earnings. The gains will be spread across upstream and downstream operations and derivative trading, as higher oil prices boost production revenue and margins while crack spreads support refinery margins. As it stands, analysts are forecasting 125% year-over-year (YOY) earnings growth and may still be underestimating the company’s strength. Analysts and institutional trends reflect this company’s strength. MarketBeat tracks 21 analysts rating it at a consensus Moderate Buy with a 52% buy-side bias. Coverage and sentiment have been firm and steady on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, with price targets rising over the past year. The midpoint target of $164.50 represents a modest double-digit upside relative to early July trading and aligns with recent highs, while the high end is enough for a fresh high. The likely outcome is that Exxon’s results will be strong enough to sustain analysts' optimism, prompting them to raise their targets over time. Institutions, meanwhile, are following the analysts' lead and accumulating at an aggressive $2-to-$1 TTM pace, limiting downside risk in Q2. Exxon’s Quality Capital Return Is Not Without RisksExxon’s biggest risks include sensitivity to oil price fluctuations, operational concentration, geopolitical risk, hedging, and climate policy. Aside from oil price fluctuations, operational concentration and climate remain the biggest risks. Hedging activity tends to help long-term results but can create negative near-term, non-cash effects on quarterly results, noted as estimated unfavorable timing effects in earnings reports. Production concentration opens the door to regional risk, including environmental crackdowns in the U.S. and disputes between Guyana and Venezuela over key oil production assets. Climate risk includes the long-term impact of oil consumption on the global ecosystem, as well as near-term risks from legal settlements. Suits such as one in Colorado could create significant financial risk if they go against defendants. Offsetting catalysts include the massive drawdown in global stockpiles caused by the war in Iran, sluggish production recovery, and the resulting impact on pricing and demand.
We are not securities dealers or brokers, investment advisers or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. Any investment should be made only after consulting a professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the financial statements and other pertinent corporate information. Further, readers are advised to read and carefully consider the Risk Factors identified and discussed in the profiled company's SEC and/or other government filings. Investing in securities, particularly microcap securities, is speculative and carries a high degree of risk.
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