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Before it jumped as high as 3,852%…
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It predicted the end of the roaring 20s boom on October 31st of 1929… right before the great depression crash…
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Founder, TrendLabs
Does IonQ's Standout Earnings Give It an Advantage Over D-Wave?
By Nathan Reiff. Originally Published: 3/3/2026.
Key Points
- IonQ is down about 18% year-to-date (YTD), while D-Wave shares have shed roughly a third of their value.
- This is despite both companies issuing earnings reports with many positive signals, including growing bookings and revenue (D-Wave) and expectation-beating revenue and guidance (IonQ).
- While both firms face profitability challenges, IonQ appears to have an advantage over its smaller rival in many ways.
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Despite having shed a third of its share price so far this year, quantum computing giant D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) appears intent on building its reputation as a leading firm in a hotly contested space. A major catalyst for that effort was D-Wave's acquisition of Quantum Circuits, a move that quickly expanded its reach and made it the largest quantum company with a dual focus on both quantum annealing and gate-model technology.
Still, competition is fierce, and several lesser-known firms could claim a dominant position. One of those competitors is IonQ Inc. (NYSE: IONQ), which has nearly twice D-Wave's market capitalization. While IonQ has also declined this year, its share price has fallen at roughly half the rate of D-Wave's, losing about 18% year-to-date (YTD).
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Both companies recently provided a useful window into their operations via earnings reports. While D-Wave posted a miss on both earnings and revenue, there were positive signals that could point to continued growth. By contrast, IonQ's earnings were notably strong, putting it squarely on the radar of quantum investors.
Is D-Wave's Earnings Success Enough to Support Ambitious Plans?
D-Wave's latest earnings report showed slower-than-expected improvements in losses per share and revenue, though both were meaningful year-over-year (YOY) gains. Bookings, however, grew quickly through late 2025 and into early 2026, with the company citing multiple eight-figure bookings in January alone.
D-Wave has positioned itself as the cash leader among pure-play quantum tech companies, and that remains true even after the firm paid $550 million in cash and stock to acquire Quantum Circuits. After accounting for the cash portion of the purchase, D-Wave still ended the quarter with roughly $900 million in cash and equivalents.
The key question for investors—and for the industry—is how D-Wave will convert growing interest in its products into materially higher revenue and, ultimately, consistent profitability.
The fact that those goals remain elusive may be a major reason investors have cooled on D-Wave shares this year.
IonQ Could Be a New Industry Standout
Compared with D-Wave's mixed results, IonQ's latest earnings were impressive. IonQ reported revenue of nearly $62 million, about 55% above its guidance midpoint and a striking 429% increase year over year.
Even more notable was IonQ's full-year 2026 guidance, which was raised to $225 million–$245 million. That range sits well above prior analyst estimates and implies that annual revenue could nearly double this year after tripling last year.
Back-to-back years of steep revenue growth are noteworthy in any industry, and they are particularly significant in the nascent quantum sector, where demand from government and commercial customers is becoming evident.
The company is already generating substantial revenue—a feat D-Wave has not matched to the same extent.
Yes, IonQ is also burning through cash, with an expected adjusted loss of up to $310 million in 2026 and no near-term profitability. However, its cash position at the end of 2025 was far stronger than D-Wave's: IonQ closed the year with about $3.3 billion in cash and equivalents. That cushion makes it unlikely IonQ will need to issue new shares to raise capital in the foreseeable future, avoiding dilution, and gives it options for growth through acquisitions, supply-chain investment, and R&D.
D-Wave vs. IonQ
It's not yet clear that any single company will dominate the quantum-tech space. Both D-Wave and IonQ still face the challenge of reaching profitability, despite healthy cash positions and growing revenue in IonQ's case. Analysts generally expect mass-market quantum applications remain years away, and large tech firms exploring quantum may enjoy advantages. Still, in this crowded field, investors are increasingly watching D-Wave and IonQ as two of the most prominent pure-play contenders.
Archer Aviation: The Billion-Dollar Battleground
By Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 2/24/2026.
Key Points
- Major institutional asset managers have increased their equity stakes in Archer Aviation, demonstrating strong confidence in its aircraft's commercial viability.
- The strategic manufacturing partnership protects the balance sheet by absorbing the significant capital costs of infrastructure development.
- A tightening supply of available shares, coupled with high short interest, creates a market setup where positive news could trigger upward momentum.
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Volatility has returned to the electric aviation sector with a vengeance, leaving many retail investors wondering whether the flight path has permanently changed. Investors in Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) have experienced significant whiplash over the last 30 days, watching the stock rally to nearly $9 in late January before sliding back to about $6.93 in late February.
To the untrained eye, this roughly 20% swing looks like a clear warning sign. Seasoned market watchers, however, recognize that this dramatic round-trip is not random market noise; it reflects a high-stakes clash between two powerful, opposing forces.
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On one side, institutional investors are quietly accumulating millions of shares, betting on the long-term potential of the technology. On the other side, short sellers are publicly betting against the company, alleging certification delays and pointing to a lack of testing updates. The stock is now trapped in a defined trading range, awaiting a catalyst to break the deadlock.
That catalyst arrives this week. The market faces a binary window with two critical events: Joby Aviation's (NYSE: JOBY) earnings report on Wednesday and Archer's own financial update next Monday. How those two events play out will likely dictate the stock's trajectory in the first half of 2026.
The BlackRock Backstop: A Floor for the Stock Price
While many day traders react to scary headlines, large asset managers focus on balance sheets. In late January, an amended Schedule 13G filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed a substantial vote of confidence: BlackRock Inc., the world's largest asset manager, increased its passive stake in Archer Aviation to 8.1%.
Why this matters to retail investors: BlackRock is not a venture-capital-style moonshot investor — it is a conservative, risk-aware institution. For a firm of its size to take nearly a 10% position in a volatile, pre-revenue aerospace company suggests its internal due diligence contradicts the bearish narrative. Institutional investors typically have access to data, models, and management access that retail traders do not. Their decision to buy during the dip suggests they view the current price as a discount rather than a trap.
Backing this financial floor is Archer's partnership with Stellantis (NYSE: STLA). This relationship serves as a significant competitive moat. Unlike competitors that must spend heavily to build factories from scratch, Archer relies on Stellantis to absorb much of the manufacturing capital costs. That arrangement preserves Archer's cash for certification and R&D. For investors, the presence of these two large stakeholders suggests that at sub-$7.00 levels, the stock is trading on a more solid foundation than headline volatility implies.
The Price of Uncertainty: Fear as a Strategy
If institutional backing is so strong, why did the stock fall about 20% in February? The answer is market psychology. On February 11, a short-seller report circulated claiming flight logs showed no recent testing of the flagship Midnight aircraft and predicting FAA certification could slip to 2028 — two years behind Archer's public schedule.
The market dislikes uncertainty more than it dislikes bad news. Because Archer is in a quiet period ahead of its earnings report, management has limited ability to rebut these claims publicly. That regulatory silence allowed the negative narrative to fester, prompting some retail investors to panic and sell.
That dynamic creates a classic market dislocation. Short sellers profit when prices decline, so they have an incentive to amplify fear. But that strategy also sets a trap: if Archer can demonstrate on Monday that flight testing has continued as planned, the basis for the sell-off will collapse. The upcoming earnings call is therefore no longer just a financial report — it is a defense of the company's execution and credibility.
Wednesday's Warning Shot: Watching Joby Aviation
Before Archer takes the stage, investors should watch the competition. On Wednesday, Feb. 25, rival Joby Aviation reports earnings. In emerging sectors like electric aviation, the market leader often sets the tone for the group — a phenomenon traders call a sympathy trade.
If Joby misses revenue targets or announces certification delays, Archer shares could dip in sympathy before Archer even reports. A poor Joby report would validate critics who argue the whole industry is stalled, and that is a real risk to monitor this week.
That said, a divergence is forming that could benefit Archer. Joby has faced recent headwinds — Goldman Sachs initiated a Sell rating citing valuation concerns — and Joby currently trades at a premium. Many analysts view Archer as the value play in the sector. If Joby falters on Wednesday, capital could rotate into the cheaper competitor, provided Archer can prove its execution is on track.
Monday's Verdict: The $2 Billion Question
The main event is Monday, March 2, when Archer releases Q4 and full-year 2025 results. While headline algorithms will focus on earnings per share (EPS), investors should not treat EPS as the primary signal. Analysts expect an estimated loss of $0.24 per share — but profitability is not the immediate goal for a company in the certification phase.
The real signals will come from two critical metrics: cash burn and liquidity.
- Cash burn: The whisper number is under $110 million for the quarter. Lower-than-expected spending would demonstrate financial discipline.
- Liquidity: Management needs to show a cash position near $2 billion to prove the company has the runway to reach commercialization without immediate, dilutive capital raises.
Beyond the numbers, CEO Adam Goldstein should use the call to address the skeptics directly. Investors will be looking for three specific confirmations to restore confidence:
- Flight logs: A clear update on Phase 4 testing to verify the aircraft is actively flying.
- Timeline: A firm rebuttal of the 2028 delay claim and a reaffirmation of the target for a 2026 commercial launch.
- Strategy: Progress updates on the UK engineering hub and the NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) partnership to show the business is expanding globally.
The 17% Trap: A Coiled Spring
The tug-of-war between institutional buyers and short sellers has produced a technical setup sometimes called a coiled spring. Short interest in Archer has risen to roughly 17% of the float — about 90 million shares sold short.
But the tradable float — the number of shares actually available to trade — is materially smaller. Large, long-term holders such as BlackRock, Stellantis, and insiders tend to trade infrequently, constraining supply. That imbalance is dangerous for the bears.
If Archer rebuts the delay rumors on Monday with positive news, many short sellers would find themselves squeezed. To cover losing positions they must buy shares, and with limited availability that forced buying could trigger a short squeeze, potentially driving the stock quickly back toward the $8.00–$9.00 range.
The Final Approach: Time to Choose a Side
Archer Aviation heads into the week priced for imperfection at $6.93. The downside appears cushioned by institutional support from BlackRock and Stellantis, while the upside is amplified by a concentrated short position that could be forced to cover if news is positive.
Volatility is likely. Investors should watch Wednesday's Joby report for early clues about the sector, but the decisive investment signal will come from Monday's Archer update. If management executes on its promises, the institutional buyers may be proven right, and the negative narrative could dissipate. This is a week for watching the data, not the noise.
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