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AT&T's Earnings Glow-Up Can't Hide These Red Flags
Written by Jordan Chussler. Publication Date: 2/28/2026.
Key Points
- Despite being up 12% this year, AT&T’s technical chart suggests its current pullback is just the start of more downside price action.
- Strong net income in 2025 appears to be an outlier compared to the five-year average, while the company’s EBITDA will suffer due to a recent acquisition.
- In the short term, the stock could fall at least 7% before testing its 50-day moving average around $25.46, and potentially further if that support fails.
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On paper, a company that just turned 141 years old and increased its net income from $10.7 billion in 2024 to $21.9 billion in 2025 may not seem like an obvious sell candidate.
It's even harder to argue for selling when the stock is up nearly 12% year-to-date, has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.88, a net profit margin above 17%, and a beta of 0.39—roughly 61% less volatile than the broad market.
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But for communication services mainstay AT&T (NYSE: T), swing and momentum traders may want to consider locking in gains, since a regression toward the stock's moving averages looks increasingly likely.
A Combination of Short-Term Technical Indicators Are Flashing Warning Signs
In November 2025, the moving averages on AT&T's one-year chart formed a bearish death cross. However, rather than plunging when the 50-day moving average (MA) crossed below the 200-day MA, the stock mostly traded in a range.
That changed on Jan. 27, when shares of T rallied more than 25% through Feb. 12 in defiance of both the 50- and 200-day MAs. During that run-up, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushed as high as 81.89.
The catalyst was the telecom company's full-year and Q4 2025 earnings report on Jan. 28, when AT&T reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.52, beating analyst expectations of $0.46, and quarterly revenue of $33.47 billion, topping expectations of $32.91 billion.
That rally was driven more by earnings-season fervor than by sustainable fundamentals. When a stock's RSI rises well above 70, it typically signals overbought conditions and a higher likelihood of a price reversal.
That's exactly what occurred in the days that followed: AT&T's RSI fell to about 56.06, and shares have dropped nearly 5%. There could be roughly 7% more downside potential before the stock tests its 50-day moving average near $25.46.
Short-term traders who anticipated the pullback likely locked in most of their earnings-induced gains. Those who did not should keep a close eye on the company's fundamentals, which raise additional concerns.
Uninspiring Revenue Growth and a Stagnant Dividend Are Cautionary Tales
Beyond technicals, some of AT&T's financial metrics are underwhelming. Its P/E of 12.88 suggests value, but that doesn't guarantee short-term upside.
The telecom's roughly 105% year-over-year net income increase—from $10.7 billion in 2024 to $21.9 billion in 2025—looks like an outlier. Excluding 2025, AT&T's five-year average net income is $6.14 billion, about 72% lower than the 2025 figure.
Revenue growth is similarly lackluster. Over the past five years, revenue has declined at an annualized rate of -2.83%, with contractions in three of the past five years (2021, 2022 and 2024).
The stock's dividend also warrants attention. AT&T cut its payout by nearly 50% in 2022, when its yield had been 7.65%. The quarterly payout fell from $0.52 to $0.27 and has largely remained at that level as management prioritized debt reduction and balance-sheet repair.
Long term, AT&T may find the balance to restore dividend growth. For now, its dividend—which has an annualized five-year growth rate of -11.80%—is less a signal for income investors than a symptom of financial strain that short-term traders should monitor.
Even after the cut, AT&T's net cash from financing activities has been negative for several quarters, including -$8.78 billion in Q4 2025, highlighting ongoing cash outflows tied to dividends, debt service and other financing needs.
On its recent earnings call, management said near-term leverage will push adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) down by more than threefold by year-end following the acquisition of Lumen Technologies' (NYSE: LUMN) mass-market fiber business. Management also noted the acquisition's benefits are not expected to materially boost EBITDA until around 2028.
Wall Street's Sentiment Remains Positive
Despite these issues, Wall Street remains mostly bullish. Of the 23 analysts covering T, 15 rate it Buy, and the stock carries a Moderate Buy rating with a consensus one-year price target of $29.93.
Current short interest stands at 1.60%, or just over 112 million shares of roughly 7 billion shares outstanding, down more than 14% from a month earlier. Although institutional ownership is 57.10%, which is below the average for large-cap stocks, inflows of more than $24 billion over the past 12 months have outpaced outflows of just over $10 billion.
Still, institutional selling in Q4 was higher than at any point in the past three years, a trend worth watching for traders considering whether to take profits or stay the course.
After a Near 50% Drop, Tempus AI Could Be Ripe for a Rebound
Written by Leo Miller. Publication Date: 2/27/2026.
Key Points
- Tempus AI’s post-IPO volatility has reset expectations, but Q4 results showed strong organic growth alongside acquisition-fueled gains.
- Management’s 2026 outlook points to a potential full-year adjusted EBITDA inflection, a key milestone for the story.
- The company’s large multimodal dataset and entrenched testing channels may make disruption harder, even as analyst targets trend lower.
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Since going public in mid-2024, shares of healthcare and life science services company Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) have experienced wild swings. The IPO price was $37. The stock climbed above $85 by February 2025, fell to roughly $50 two months later, and by October had rebounded above $100. Around that time, MarketBeat cautioned investors as Tempus displayed several overvaluation signals. The stock now trades near $54 per share, nearly 50% below its all-time high.
Tempus recently reported its latest financial results, and the stock slid about 7% on the news. Still, with shares down materially, the company is worth another look.
TEM Tops Estimates, Projects Full-Year EBITDA Inflection in 2026
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In Q4 2025, Tempus grew revenue 83% to $367 million, beating estimates. Much of that gain, however, came from acquisitions, which inflated the topline. Organic growth was a healthy 33.5%. The company posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.04, slightly better than the $0.05 analysts expected.
Testing volume grew 29% in the oncology business and 23% in hereditary testing. Sustained growth in these areas is important because more tests not only drive diagnostic revenue but also feed the company's data and applications business.
Tempus sells the data generated from its tests to pharmaceutical firms that use it to improve clinical trial success. Data and applications revenue rose 25% (slightly down from 26% last quarter). The company reported a full-year net retention rate of 126%, meaning existing customers increased their spending by 26% year over year.
Profitability is improving. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) totaled $12.9 million in Q4, up from a loss of $7.8 million in Q4 2024.
Looking ahead, Tempus expects revenue growth of about 25% in 2026 and forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $65 million. That would mark the company's first full-year positive adjusted EBITDA.
TEM's Huge 450 Petabyte Dataset: An AI-Disruption Shield
The risk from artificial intelligence disrupting Tempus appears limited. Tempus has amassed roughly 450 petabytes of multimodal data that it can use to train its own models.
Data storage firm Pure Storage (NYSE: PSTG) — which will begin trading under the name Everpure on March 5 — puts this into perspective. It estimates that with 3.6 billion exams annually, the healthcare sector generates about 450 petabytes of imaging data per year. Tempus's dataset is therefore similar in size to the total imaging data produced by the healthcare system in a year.
Tempus's lead in accumulating this data is large and growing, which would make replication difficult for new entrants. The dataset has more than tripled since 2022, when it was under 150 petabytes. Much of this data originates in the diagnostics segment, where Tempus performs oncological and hereditary testing; the company says more than 8,500 oncologists and thousands of other physicians regularly order tests.
Reproducing this training data would require rivals to perform the same diagnostic testing — something major AI labs do not do and are unlikely to pursue. Many AI developers are focused on disrupting software-as-a-service models and already train models on code and other broadly available data, so building a duplicate of Tempus's dataset is not necessarily part of their playbook.
Tempus is also developing its own foundational model and has submitted it to pharma giant AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) for review. That model represents a potential revenue stream the company has not yet fully monetized.
Even After Lowering Targets, Analysts Eye Solid Gains Ahead
The MarketBeat consensus price target for Tempus sits near $79, implying more than 40% upside.
It's worth noting many analysts have not recently updated their targets. Among those who revised or issued targets after Tempus's earnings release, the average is slightly lower at roughly $71, which still suggests around 30% upside.
Overall, demand for Tempus's offerings appears strong, and existing customers are spending more — a sign the company is delivering value and finding upsell opportunities.
Considering the revenue growth, improving profitability, and the strategic advantage of its dataset, Tempus shares appear to have significant upside potential from current levels.
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