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Special Report

2 Reasons Qualcomm's Risk/Reward Is Now Red Hot

Author: Sam Quirke. Posted: 2/12/2026.

Close-up of a Qualcomm-branded microchip on a green circuit board, representing the semiconductor industry.

Summary

  • After a brutal post-earnings sell-off that added to a month-long slide, Qualcomm now looks technically washed out, with sentiment pushed to extremely oversold levels.
  • However, these conditions have been showing signs of unwinding, with momentum swinging upward in recent days.
  • Despite near-term uncertainty, analyst support is unusually strong, with upside targets implying as much as 40% upside from current levels. 

After sliding since the first week of January, tech giant Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) suffered a brutal start to February. Shares plunged through the company's fiscal Q2 earnings, at one point dropping as much as 13%. The move produced one of the company's worst starts to a year and wiped out investor sentiment.

Now, after four consecutive days of gains — the first streak like this since December — investors appear to be signaling the market overreacted. They may have a point. Here are two reasons Qualcomm's risk/reward profile just became more compelling.

Reason #1: Extremely Oversold Technicals Are Starting to Turn

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Qualcomm rarely trades in deeply oversold territory, which is exactly what it's doing right now. The stock's relative strength index (RSI) has sat below 30 for the past week — its most oversold readings in nearly a year.

Historically, these washed-out sentiment periods have preceded recovery rallies. The last time Qualcomm's RSI fell to similar levels was in spring 2025, shortly before the stock rallied about 70%. A comparable pattern played out in 2023 when a sub-30 RSI also preceded a sharp rebound.

Just as important as the reading is the recent direction. Since last week's lows, Qualcomm's RSI has turned higher, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting and that bulls are beginning to accumulate positions.

This doesn't mean the stock is suddenly "fixed" or guaranteed to recover. It does, however, reduce the odds of further immediate downside compared with a week ago.

Reason #2: Bullish Analyst Targets Are Hard to Ignore

With downside risk appearing to ease, the potential reward looks more attractive. Qualcomm has not always been the focus of consistent analyst attention, so the wave of updates after last week's earnings carries weight.

Although some firms kept a cautious Neutral rating, many set price targets well above the current trading level — a sign the market's reaction may have been overdone and the stock could be underpriced.

More notable is the growing bullish chorus among analysts. Rosenblatt Securities, JPMorgan, and Piper Sandler, among others, have reiterated Buy ratings with targets up to $200, implying upside in excess of 40% from current levels.

From a risk/reward standpoint, that asymmetry is attractive: limited near-term downside risk (relative to last week) paired with meaningful upside if analyst expectations play out.

Even if Qualcomm lags some mega-cap tech peers, the gap between current prices and analyst projections has widened materially — and that gap creates opportunity.

Weighing Up the Opportunity

None of this erases the issues that triggered the sell-off. Guidance disappointed, visibility remains limited, and Qualcomm continues to face structural headwinds tied to its historical exposure to handsets.

Those realities explain the aggressive sell-off and signal the stock is likely to remain volatile through the quarter. While upside now looks more attractive, investors should remain clear-eyed about the underlying risks.

Qualcomm still needs to rebuild confidence and sustain momentum beyond a short-term technical bounce. That said, after a punishing stretch that pushed sentiment to extremes, the stock's risk/reward has shifted: technicals are improving, analyst sentiment has tilted bullish, and some refreshed price targets look difficult to ignore.

Getting Involved

For investors with a short- to medium-term horizon, this may be one of those moments where stepping in feels uncomfortable but rational. The company doesn't need to deliver big news immediately; it primarily needs selling pressure to exhaust so a rebound can take hold.

If you're considering a position, consider managing risk with smaller initial allocations, staged entries (dollar-cost averaging), and clear stop-loss or position-size rules in case volatility persists.


 

 
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Further Reading: Trump's Final Shocking Act Begins February 24 (From Banyan Hill Publishing)

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