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Meta Soars After-Hours, Forecasting Fastest Growth Since 2021
Authored by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/29/2026.
What You Need to Know
- Meta Platforms’ Q4 results beat expectations, and its Q1 guidance points to faster growth than analysts anticipated.
- Stronger engagement and rising ad impressions suggest the company’s AI-driven ad tools are translating into revenue momentum.
- Investors largely shrugged off higher 2026 spending plans as growth regained the spotlight.
After months of disappointment, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) may have just changed the narrative around its business. In October, the Magnificent Seven stock fell 11% after its Q3 earnings report, amid fears of runaway artificial intelligence (AI) spending.
But the company appears to have redeemed itself with its Q4 2025 earnings report, released on Jan. 28. The stock was up about 8% in after-hours trading as of 7:00 p.m. ET. Meta is forcing skeptics to reassess the company’s outlook, with growth taking center stage over spending worries.
Meta Posts Strong Beats and Stellar Guidance
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Get the four picks plus a bonus stock with potential for significant upside.In Q4, Meta reported revenue of $59.9 billion, roughly 24% year-over-year growth, comfortably above estimates of $58.3 billion (21% growth). The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.88 also beat consensus estimates of $8.16, rising nearly 11% year over year.
By far the most striking figure was Meta’s guidance for Q1 2026. At the midpoint, Meta expects $55 billion in revenue, well above the $51.3 billion analysts had forecast.
That midpoint implies revenue would grow about 30% next quarter, which would be Meta’s fastest quarterly growth since Q3 2021.
This acceleration in growth is exactly what shareholders wanted to see and provides further evidence that the company’s AI investments are bearing fruit.
Among Meta’s underlying metrics, growth in ad impressions delivered stood out. "Ad impressions delivered" measures the number of ad impressions served across the company’s social platforms during the quarter. That number rose 18%, its fastest pace in nearly two years. CFO Susan Li said strong engagement and user growth were the primary drivers; for example, watch time on Instagram Reels was up 30% year-over-year, a clear sign of rising user engagement.
Higher engagement is a positive sign for Meta: it suggests the company’s AI-powered recommendation and ranking models—which decide what content to show users and when—are improving. As these models get better, users spend more time on Meta’s apps, enabling the company to serve more ads.
Markets Brush Off Higher-than-Expected Spending Forecasts
Concerns about rising capital expenditure (CapEx) have weighed on the stock in recent months. Meta’s CapEx guidance, however, exceeded Wall Street expectations.
For 2026, Meta expects to spend $115 billion to $135 billion on CapEx; analysts had been modeling roughly $110 billion. At the midpoint, Meta’s guidance implies a 73% increase versus 2025 CapEx of $72.2 billion.
Meta also forecasted total expenses of $162 billion to $169 billion in 2026, well above estimates of about $150 billion.
Reading between the lines reveals a crucial detail about Meta’s 2026 outlook. Management said, “Despite the meaningful step up in infrastructure investment, in 2026, we expect to deliver operating income that is above 2025 operating income.”
Note: Revenue = Operating Income + Total Expenses
Meta expects operating income in 2026 to be at least as high as in 2025, and it provided its 2026 expense guidance. From those figures we can estimate 2026 revenue.
Meta generated $83.3 billion in operating income in 2025, and the high end of its 2026 expense guidance is $169 billion. Summing those gives $252.3 billion, a rough estimate of full-year 2026 revenue. That would represent roughly 25.5% growth versus full-year 2025 revenue of $201 billion—well above the roughly 18.3% growth analysts had been forecasting for 2026.
Growth Overshadows Spending as Meta’s AI Strategy Sinks Its Teeth In
Although investors had focused on Meta’s expense guidance, the company offset those concerns with very strong growth projections. Some critics point out that Meta has not yet developed a top-tier general-purpose AI model, but the company’s operating results indicate its AI investments are already accelerating the most important part of its business: social media advertising.
After a difficult few months, Meta Platforms may have delivered exactly what it needed to reignite investor optimism.
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