Dear Investor,
There's a pattern in the stock market that repeats every single year.
It's not hidden. It's not a secret. The dates are published months in advance.
And almost nobody pays attention to it.
I put together a report that explains why the market's biggest moves tend to cluster around a small number of known dates, and what's actually driving it behind the scenes.
It's a quick read. And I think you'll find it useful immediately.
Download The Market Calendar Report Here
Talk soon,
Jim Archer
Chief Breakout Specialist
Wealth Creation Investing
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2026 Food Inflation Outlook: This ETF Could Outperform
Author: Jordan Chussler. First Published: 2/21/2026.
Key Points
- With a loss of more than 6%, consumer discretionary stocks have performed the worst over the past month.
- But the fast food and quick service restaurant market is expected to grow at a 14.8% CAGR through 2033.
- As dining out is forecast to get nearly 5% more costly in 2026, the EATZ ETF provides a basket of fast food and casual dining restaurants that are poised to take advantage.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Consumer discretionary stocks haven't fared so well in 2026. After finishing with a 6% gain last year—good for third worst among the S&P 500's 11 sectors—the group has posted a 2.7% year-to-date (YTD) loss, also third from the bottom.
Things have looked even bleaker over the past month, during which the consumer discretionary sector has lost 6.46%—dead last in the S&P 500. But help could arrive later this year from an unlikely source: food inflation.
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Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its Food Price Outlook for 2026. While the cost of some foodstuffs is expected to slow, many others are expected to rise. One notable takeaway is that prices for food away from home (i.e., dining out) are forecast to climb about 4.6%.
That's good news for one exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offers basket exposure to a range of fast-food and fast-casual dining chains.
Food Inflation Is Not Going Away
If prices felt out of control in 2025, consumers may feel more pressure this year. Products like pork and eggs are expected to decline in price, but beef and veal are forecast to rise by about 9.4% in 2026. That increase will hurt diners more than grocery shoppers.
Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase about 1.7%, while food-away-from-home prices are expected to rise roughly 4.6%. That may dissuade some people from dining out. Yet many restaurant companies that saw their shares fall in 2025 still generated top-line growth despite shifting consumer sentiment.
Take Chipotle (NYSE: CMG). Although CMG's shares were battered last year, the company continued to report year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth. Last year's growth slowed to 5.41% YOY even as the stock fell more than 30%. From 2022 to 2024, the company averaged 14.45% YOY revenue growth.
Although inflation remains sticky, it is well below the 2022 peak—the worst in 41 years—when food prices rose 9.9% (BLS). As such, Chipotle's slower revenue growth last year could be an outlier, and better results may follow even if price increases moderate.
Consumers may mourn the loss of dollar menus, but they are also—begrudgingly—accepting $12 burgers, $15 burritos, and $20 pizzas.
According to industry consultancy Grand View Research, the global fast food and quick service restaurant market, estimated at more than $296 billion in 2025, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.8% from 2026 through 2033, reaching a forecasted value of more than $885 billion.
That outlook bodes particularly well for one ETF.
Order Up Exposure With the EATZ ETF
Since its launch on April 20, 2021, the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) has offered investors targeted exposure to the fast-food and quick-service restaurant industry. The actively managed fund carries an expense ratio of 0.99% and a modest dividend yield of 0.48% (about $0.13 per share annually).
The ETF's top holdings by weight include Nathan's Famous (NASDAQ: NATH), Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Chipotle, The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE), El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO), Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH), Domino's (NASDAQ: DPZ), DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH), Wingstop (NASDAQ: WING), and others.
Admittedly, some of those stocks struggled over the past year, but in many cases those results appear temporary rather than structural. Returning to Chipotle, after posting YOY growth of nearly 15% in 2019, the pandemic pushed revenue growth down to about 7.13% in 2020. The company rebounded in 2021, and growth topped 26% by 2022.
Last year, Chipotle reported record net income. So did Dutch Bros, Darden Restaurants (owner of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse), and Texas Roadhouse. Domino's— which doesn't report earnings until Feb. 23—appears on pace for record revenue, as do The Cheesecake Factory and DoorDash when they next report.
The fund carries an aggregate Moderate Buy rating, despite a notable short interest near 24%—roughly 21,000 of about 90,000 shares outstanding. EATZ also raises liquidity concerns, with an average daily trading volume of only about 2,240 shares.
For investors who believe in the long-term prospects of the global fast-food and quick-service restaurant market, the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF can serve as a convenient, all-you-can-eat buffet for portfolio exposure.
Is LyondellBasell's Nearly 10% Dividend Safe, or a Warning Sign for Investors?
Author: Leo Miller. First Published: 2/14/2026.
Key Points
- LyondellBasell’s nearly 10% dividend yield is attractive, but it’s elevated largely because the stock has fallen and the cycle is weak.
- Dividend coverage improved recently, yet full-year free cash flow lagged the dividend payout, keeping sustainability questions front and center.
- Leverage has risen versus historical norms, and management has signaled the dividend is under review—making policy decisions a near-term catalyst.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
When a stock's dividend yield approaches or exceeds double digits, investors naturally take notice. With an indicated dividend yield of roughly 9.5%, chemical company LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE: LYB) is worth a closer look.
High yields can be enticing, but they often signal heightened risk. Frequently a surge in yield reflects a precipitous drop in the share price, which may indicate underlying business stress. That appears true for LyondellBasell: the stock is down about 40% over the past three years, and when a cyclical business weakens, dividend payouts can come under pressure.
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For example, basic materials and chemical company DOW (NYSE: DOW) traded with a near-10% yield from April to mid-July 2025 before the firm cut its dividend in half. The DOW example underscores that investors shouldn't simply "set it and forget it" with very high-yield stocks.
So, is LyondellBasell's elevated yield sustainable? And what upside, if any, remains in the share price?
LYB: Chemical Giant Operating in a Weak Environment
Lyondell converts hydrocarbon feedstocks—ethane, propane and butane—into plastic resins and other chemicals used in packaging, consumer goods and auto parts. Because much of its output is commodity-grade, prices are driven by global supply and demand. Currently the market faces oversupply, which has pressured selling prices. In 2025, margins across Lyondell's businesses were roughly 45% below historical averages.
That gap leaves room for a meaningful recovery, but it also highlights the headwinds the company faces. Assessing dividend sustainability requires estimating how and when a cyclical rebound might occur. The company expects "modest improvements" next quarter, but management attributes that primarily to seasonal patterns rather than a broad market recovery.
Questions Around Dividend Sustainability Persist
In 2025 Lyondell's dividend payments totaled $1.76 billion—about 2.4 times the free cash flow it generated for the year. That picture improved in the most recent quarter, when free cash flow of $557 million covered the $443 million in dividends paid. Still, the annual shortfall raises real concerns about maintaining such a high payout if weak cash generation persists.
The company holds roughly $3.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and could draw on those reserves to sustain the dividend in the near term. At the same time, Lyondell emphasizes its desire to maintain an investment-grade credit rating. Net debt to EBITDA now sits at 3.7x, well above the firm's 10-year average of about 2x.
In short, the company is generating weak operating profits relative to its debt load. That makes eroding cash reserves to preserve the dividend a risky path, since it would worsen leverage metrics. When asked about the possibility of a cut, CEO Peter Vanacker called it a "very good question," noting the Board will review dividend policy at its next meeting in February—an obvious point when a reduction could be decided.
LYB: Dividend at Risk as Recovery Timeline Remains Uncertain
Overall, Lyondell faces a real risk of a dividend cut, though it is not inevitable. Analysts offer little near-term optimism: the MarketBeat consensus price target of $51 implies roughly 12% downside from current levels, and the average of targets updated after the Jan. 30 earnings release is even lower at $47.80.
Those are 12-month targets, and a meaningful cyclical recovery may take longer than a year. If demand and margins normalize, Lyondell could see significantly higher share prices—the stock traded above $85 in 2022 when demand and EBITDA were much stronger. For now, the combination of a sky-high yield, weak cash flow and elevated leverage makes the dividend vulnerable unless the market turnaround arrives sooner than many expect.
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