Remember when Bitcoin crashed 80% in 2022… and the people who bought the dip made life-changing money?
We may be looking at that same moment right now.
The Fear & Greed Index just hit 5—the lowest ever recorded. Retail investors are panic-selling everything.
But here's what most people are missing…
While prices crash, usage on one project is surging. Billions are flowing through its protocol… because people actually need it when markets get volatile.
And the smart money has noticed.
Whales are quietly accumulating while retail runs for the exits. Bernstein's analysts just said: "The bear case is the weakest in Bitcoin's history."
This altcoin is still trading at a fraction of where it could go. As capital rotates back in—and history says it will—early movers in quality altcoins could see the biggest upside.
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The last time fear was this extreme, what followed was the biggest rally in crypto history.
Bryce Paul
Crypto 101
Strategy Earnings Reveal the Real Risk Behind MSTR Stock
Reported by Chris Markoch. Article Published: 2/6/2026.
At a Glance
- Strategy’s quarterly results are dominated by Bitcoin accounting swings, not the performance of its software business.
- The company’s Bitcoin position is effectively debt-funded leverage, which can amplify gains — and losses — for shareholders.
- With Bitcoin below Strategy’s reported average purchase price, the stock’s risk profile looks closer to a leveraged Bitcoin bet than a traditional software play.
Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock is down a little over 2% after the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings following the close on Feb. 5. The report underscored a familiar theme for MSTR investors: quarterly results are now driven far more by Bitcoin accounting than by the company's underlying software operations.
Strategy continues to grow its analytics revenue at a steady, modest pace, but headline figures remain volatile because of changes in the value of its large Bitcoin holdings. That dynamic made the report look weak on the surface, even as the company doubled down on its long-term Bitcoin-focused strategy.
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Heading into earnings, analysts projected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $46.02, compared with an EPS loss of $3.03 in the prior year. Mainly because of realized Bitcoin losses, Strategy missed that number by a wide margin, posting a loss of $42.93 per share for the quarter.
What Every Investor Should Understand About Strategy
Strategy is no longer primarily a software company any more than GameStop Inc. (NYSE: GME) is a traditional video game retailer. Though its origins are in software, Strategy has pivoted to act as a Bitcoin treasury.
Put simply, it's a leveraged play on Bitcoin that also generates some software revenue. That distinction is critical for understanding the company's risk profile.
The company has accumulated a large Bitcoin position. At the end of 2025, Strategy owned 713,502 Bitcoin at a total cost of $54.26 billion, with an average cost of $76,052 per coin — roughly 3% of the world's Bitcoin supply.
Strategy's Debt-Funded Bitcoin Bet Raises Leverage and Liquidation Risk
How Strategy financed those purchases is the bigger issue. The company primarily bought Bitcoin using convertible debt in the form of secured notes.
The takeaway for investors is straightforward: Bitcoin is Strategy's largest asset by far, but it's funded with debt. That is leverage.
If Bitcoin rises, the value of the BTC can increase faster than the debt, magnifying gains for shareholders. But if Bitcoin falls, losses are multiplied — which is what's happening now.
To make matters worse, Bitcoin currently trades around $63,169 per coin, roughly 16% below Strategy's average purchase price.
Remember that while Strategy still has a software business, it's no longer the primary driver of the company's valuation. Even if it were, the software sector has been hit by the recent tech shakeout.
In addition, the recently adopted GENIUS Act has legitimized Treasury-backed stablecoins; some analysts argue this could weaken Bitcoin's transactional utility and its appeal as a store of value.
That raises the obvious question: could the company be forced to sell Bitcoin? According to Polymarket, the odds it would have to liquidate are roughly 26%.
Strategy Stock Is Not for Every Investor
No matter how you frame it, buying Strategy is effectively buying Bitcoin exposure — with leverage.
That can deliver outsized returns when Bitcoin rises, as it did for much of 2024. But when Bitcoin falls, as it has since late 2025, MSTR shares fall further; the stock is down nearly 58% over the past three months.
Of course, unrealized losses only matter if an investor sells. Those who believe Bitcoin will recover and who can hold through volatility could see a compelling buying opportunity.
Analysts still have a consensus price target of $417.38 on MSTR, implying a 290% gain from its close on Feb. 5. But given the company's leveraged Bitcoin exposure, investing in MSTR increasingly resembles a speculative bet on the direction of Bitcoin — which is why the risks are asymmetric.
How to Read Applied Materials Earnings: What Signals Move the Stock?
Reported by Sam Quirke. Article Published: 2/12/2026.
At a Glance
- Applied Materials is up 26% year to date and roughly 170% since last April, and has been consistently printing new highs since November.
- This week’s earnings are highly anticipated, with expectations elevated amid a broader shift in tech sentiment.
- If the company can deliver, the rally should continue, but if it stumbles, any dip would likely be a buying opportunity.
Having already gained a reputation as one of the strongest performers of the year, Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ: AMAT) now faces its first big test of the year. Shares are up 26% year to date and have rallied roughly 170% since last April, hitting all-time highs on what feels like a near-weekly basis since November.
The move has been underpinned by consistent earnings outperformance, a strong position in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and growing Wall Street confidence in management's ability to execute. But sentiment across tech has shifted in recent weeks, so its fiscal Q1 earnings report is likely to be scrutinized more closely than usual.
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See Dylan Jovine's Gold Miner Pick Before the March 31 Delivery WindowInvestors have again questioned rising capital expenditures, and company-specific headwinds—such as exposure to China—have re-entered the conversation. This means Applied Materials will be one of the most closely watched stocks of the week and will likely remain a hot topic for the rest of the quarter. The question investors are asking is whether the gains can continue beyond the Feb. 12 report and how to position for the fallout. Let's take a closer look.
Why the Rally Has Room to Run
Regardless of how the fiscal Q1 report lands, the broader backdrop remains supportive. The global semiconductor market is expanding, driven by AI, high-performance computing and increasing chip complexity. As demand rises, so does the need for advanced manufacturing equipment—placing Applied Materials squarely in the sweet spot of the cycle.
Beyond cyclical demand, there's a structural component at play. As chip fabrication becomes more complex, the recurring service-and-parts side of Applied Materials' business has grown more valuable. That recurring revenue adds resilience and margin stability—dynamics investors have leaned into over the past year.
Recent analyst activity reinforces this confidence. Teams at RBC, B. Riley Financial, Citigroup and UBS reiterated Buy ratings in February, with price targets up to $405. That implies roughly 20% upside even after the strong run this year. Critically, those updates came in the days before the report—a notable sign of analysts' unusually high confidence in Applied Materials' prospects.
The Bar Is High, But History Favors the Bulls
Expectations are elevated heading into Thursday's report—Morgan Stanley recently said it expects the company to surpass estimates. That level of bullishness, however, increases risk.
When a stock has rallied this hard and trades near highs, even a solid report can spark profit-taking if the numbers and forward guidance fall short of spectacular. Combined with the recent sentiment shift in tech stocks, that dynamic tends to increase volatility.
Still, Applied Materials has a track record of overachieving, and consistent execution has underpinned the rally over the past year. Even if earnings only meet estimates or guidance is slightly soft, the long-term thesis is unlikely to break. A knee-jerk selloff would more likely be viewed as a buying opportunity than a definitive warning sign.
How to Play the Fallout
The setup heading into earnings is straightforward. If Applied Materials posts a convincing beat and maintains a confident outlook, the stock should be well-positioned to build on its multi-month rally. Fresh highs would likely attract momentum buyers and reinforce its leadership status.
If the report disappoints and shares pull back sharply, investors should watch closely rather than panic. With structural demand intact and analyst support in place, an earnings-driven dip could offer a compelling entry point—especially if long-term guidance remains steady. Key items to monitor on the call are forward guidance, capital-expenditure plans, commentary on China exposure, and trends in service and parts revenue.
Either way, Applied Materials is a name you want on your radar this quarter.
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