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Why Robinhood's Nearly 50% Slide Is a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity
Authored by Leo Miller. First Published: 2/12/2026.
Article Highlights
- Robinhood’s Q4 earnings miss on crypto revenue accelerated a sharp post-earnings selloff.
- The stock is now down nearly 50% from its high as investors sold after the company's latest earnings.
- Despite transaction-driven volatility, Robinhood continues to see strong deposit growth, supporting its outlook.
After putting up explosive gains in 2025, investors are punishing financial services stock Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) this year.
The stock has been weak as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) have plunged in 2026. Robinhood's latest earnings report, released on Feb. 10, accelerated the slide; shares fell roughly 9% the next day as markets digested the results.
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Shares of HOOD have now dropped nearly 50% from their all-time high closing price in October 2025. Given this backdrop, could there now be a significant buy-the-dip opportunity ahead? Let's dive into the fintech firm's newest financials to assess that question.
Crypto Miss Weighs on Robinhood’s Q4 Earnings
In Q4 2025, Robinhood recorded revenue of $1.28 billion, a 27% year-over-year (YOY) increase, missing analyst expectations of $1.32 billion. The biggest shortfall versus estimates came from crypto transaction sales, which totaled $221 million, down 38% YOY and well under estimates near $248 million.
Despite the revenue miss, the company beat EPS estimates: earnings per share fell 35% YOY to $0.66 but topped forecasts of $0.63. That decline is partly because a 47-cent tax benefit had inflated Q4 2024 EPS.
Overall, revenue rose 52% in 2025. Comparable adjusted operating expenses plus share-based compensation (SBC) rose only 22%. SBC totaled $305 million, essentially flat versus 2024—a positive sign that Robinhood is not inflating profitability through excessive stock-based pay.
Those dynamics helped the company's full-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin expand to 56.4%, an increase of about 800 basis points versus 2024.
Robinhood does not provide revenue guidance. At the midpoint of its expense outlook, however, the company expects adjusted operating expenses and SBC to increase roughly 18%. More than half of that increase is earmarked for new and scaling businesses, which management does not view as concerning. On the earnings call, new Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma said the company expects revenue growth to outpace expense increases.
Despite Valuation Dependence, Deposits Provide Strength
Robinhood has several strengths, but it is more sensitive to crypto and equity market volatility than most firms.
In 2025, transactions across options, equities, and crypto made up 52% of total revenue, slightly down from 53% in 2024. Crypto alone accounted for 20%, compared with 21% the prior year. Because transaction revenues tend to decline when asset valuations fall, Robinhood has some dependence on rising valuations — though over the long term equity and crypto markets have generally trended upward, which provides a tailwind.
Options trading revenue has increased for nine consecutive quarters, in part because options strategies allow traders to potentially profit in both rising and falling markets.
Net deposits rose 35% in 2025, indicating asset growth driven not only by valuation gains but also by new customer deposits. Prediction markets are another growth area: trading volumes doubled in Q4, and the company has labeled them a top growth priority going forward.
Analysts Eye Big Time Upside in HOOD After Fall
Wall Street's immediate reaction was mixed. MarketBeat tracked several analysts who cut price targets by 10% or more, and two who trimmed targets by 20% or more. Still, the MarketBeat consensus price target on Robinhood stands near $127, implying roughly 64% upside over the next 12 months. The average of targets issued or updated after the report is nearly $134, suggesting potential upside of about 72%.
The sell-off may present a meaningful long-term opportunity, but downside moves in crypto and equity markets remain large risk factors for HOOD. Additionally, a lower federal funds rate could pressure Robinhood's net interest revenue if the Federal Reserve resumes cutting rates this year.
Going forward, the firm's ability to sustain strong deposit growth and diversify revenue streams will be important to watch. Notably, Robinhood is targeting over 20% net deposit growth in 2026.
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