Dear Reader,
A few weeks ago, my name appeared in the Epstein files.
I won't dramatize it. I wasn't accused of anything. I wasn't involved.
But I did something most people don't do when they see something that doesn't add up.
I spoke up.
Years ago, when I thought a financial tip might help law enforcement understand how Epstein operated, I shared it. Discreetly. Without expecting anything in return.
That instinct... to step forward when something feels wrong... is the same one that led me to warn about the dot‑com bubble... the housing collapse... and several major market dislocations before they became obvious.
And it's why I'm speaking up again now.
Because something fundamental is shifting in America.
The cost of living no longer matches how much money we make...
We can't keep our promises to younger generations.
And artificial intelligence is accelerating changes most people are not prepared for.
One Wall Street strategist recently called what's coming a "violent reset."
I agree with the direction, if not the language.
There is a line forming between those who understand what's happening... and those who don't.
I've laid out what I'm seeing and, more important, what you can do about it, in detail.
Click here to read it while you still can.
Regards,
Whitney Tilson
Editor, Stansberry's Investment Advisory
Once Upon A Farm: Buy the $1B Growth Story?
Reported by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published: 2/10/2026.
Quick Look
- The company demonstrates a financial profile that resembles a technology stock, with rapid top-line growth and impressive gross margins.
- A proprietary network of in-store coolers creates a defensive moat that drives significant category growth and blocks competitors from shelf space.
- Strategic expansion into older-kid product lines and international markets extends the customer lifecycle well beyond the initial baby-food window.
On Friday, Feb. 6, 2026, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) welcomed a new ticker that is already shaking up the consumer staples sector. Once Upon a Farm (NYSE: OFRM), known for disrupting the baby food aisle with cold-pressed organic pouches, priced its initial public offering (IPO) at $18 per share. By the following Monday, the stock had risen to trade near $21.14, a gain of roughly 17%.
That successful debut does more than reward early investors — it signals a shift in market sentiment. After a period in which Wall Street was hesitant to embrace new listings, Once Upon a Farm's reception suggests investors are again willing to pay a premium for companies with tangible products, strong brand equity, and verifiable volume growth.
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Having raised roughly $198 million to fund expansion and pay down debt, and with a market capitalization estimated between $845 million and $1 billion, Once Upon a Farm has pushed back against the IPO-freeze narrative. The market is hungry for high-growth consumer assets that can demonstrate pricing power in a competitive environment. But beyond celebrity headlines and opening-bell excitement, does the business model justify the valuation?
Why OFRM Trades Like a Tech Stock
Much of the bullishness around OFRM stems from a financial profile that looks more like a technology company than a traditional food manufacturer. While legacy food brands often post single-digit growth, OFRM is expanding at a pace rarely seen in the grocery aisle.
Key metrics behind investor confidence include:
- Revenue velocity: In the twelve months ended June 30, 2025, the company reported net sales of nearly $202 million.
- Compound growth: A Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 64.6% from 2018 through 2025, suggesting the brand is taking share from legacy competitors.
- Healthy margins: Despite inflationary pressure, gross margins have remained between 40% and 44%, indicating parents are willing to pay a premium for clean-label nutrition.
A unique component of this financial engine is Jennifer Garner, co-founder and chief brand officer. Unlike passive celebrity endorsements, Garner's active role generates significant organic media impressions and builds customer loyalty — reflected in a Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 47, exceptionally high for the grocery sector.
That halo effect improves marketing efficiency by lowering Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC), allowing the company to allocate capital toward product quality and supply-chain improvements rather than relying solely on paid advertising.
The Frozen Fortress: Keeping Rivals Out
In consumer packaged goods (CPG), the biggest risk is often a sea of sameness. Once Upon a Farm has built a physical barrier to entry: the cold chain. Rather than fight for limited shelf space, the company has deployed more than 2,800 proprietary, branded coolers at major retailers.
Owning cooler real estate changes the geometry of the retail aisle. It ensures products are displayed prominently and kept at the correct temperature. The data supports the heavy investment in this infrastructure:
- Incrementality: These coolers drive roughly 61% incremental growth to the baby food category for retailers, giving stores a financial incentive to keep OFRM visible.
- Productivity: Each cooler generates an annual run rate of about $10,500 in retail sales.
For a competitor to challenge this position, it would need to replicate a complex refrigerated supply chain and persuade retailers to allocate valuable floor space for additional coolers. That physical infrastructure creates a defensive moat that is costly and time-consuming to overcome, supporting a premium valuation relative to shelf-stable peers.
Strategic Cash Burn: Funding the Future
Top-line growth is impressive, but the company is not yet profitable. Last-twelve-month (LTM) net loss was approximately $48.1 million. In the context of a high-growth CPG company, it's important to examine the nature of this cash burn: the losses stem from strategic investments rather than broken unit economics.
The IPO proceeds are being directed toward upfront slotting fees to place more coolers, capital expenditures, and research and development — moves intended to expand the total addressable market (TAM). The company is also broadening its target beyond infants to older children, creating new revenue streams that should improve lifetime customer value.
Recent strategic initiatives include:
- Product expansion: Launches of "big kid" items like Soft-Baked Bars and Refrigerated Protein Bars (January 2025) extend the customer lifecycle well beyond the typical baby-food window.
- International growth: Capital allocated to a UK market entry scheduled for March 2026.
Current net losses represent the cost of acquiring long-term market share and establishing a global footprint. As distribution expands toward more than 20,000 doors, sales volumes are expected to outpace fixed costs and generate operating leverage.
Watching Once Upon a Farm Grow Up
Once Upon a Farm presents a rare hybrid profile for retail investors: the defensive traits of a consumer food stock combined with a growth trajectory more commonly associated with technology names. While the stock trades at a higher multiple of sales than legacy food companies, that premium appears supported by verified growth metrics and a tangible infrastructure advantage.
The successful IPO and the roughly 17% pop in the stock price indicate market confidence in the company's strategy. By leveraging a cold-chain moat, expanding product categories, and entering new geographies, OFRM is building a business with a long runway. For growth-oriented investors, the company offers an opportunity to buy into a category leader early in its public price discovery.
Microchip Technology Says the Slump Is Ending—The Stock Is Starting to Agree
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Published: 2/6/2026.
Quick Look
- Microchip Technology is positioned to rebound as demand stabilizes across its core industrial, automotive and data center end markets.
- Stronger cash generation is improving dividend and debt coverage, supporting continued shareholder returns through 2026.
- Management’s outlook looks constructive but conservatively framed, despite accelerating momentum in data center and automotive.
Microchip Technology's (NASDAQ: MCHP) Q3 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) earnings report wasn't a blowout, but it was broadly bullish. In CEO Steve Sanghi's words, the company is experiencing a broad-based recovery in end semiconductor markets alongside improving operational execution. The key takeaways from Q3 are a return to growth—the first in several years—and widening margins, which position the company for a leveraged earnings recovery.
Other important details include improving balance-sheet trends and capital returns: debt is falling and coverage metrics are turning positive. Including the guidance, which forecasts another sequential acceleration, the signs point to a business with traction and momentum that will likely outperform Q4 guidance and next fiscal year's forecasts.
Microchip Technology Returns to Growth in Q3 FY2026
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Microchip posted a solid quarter, even though results only met analyst projections. Net revenue of $1.19 billion was up more than 15.5% year-over-year, driven by strength in key markets. Automotive and industrial demand underpinned the gain, with contributions across all segments. Sequential revenue rose about 4%, and guidance indicates that acceleration should continue.
Margin improvement was a critical factor. The company's efforts and its reinvigorated revenue leverage produced meaningful gains versus last year. GAAP losses reverted to profitability, income and earnings expanded dramatically, and management expects the strength to persist. Adjusted EPS of $0.44 beat consensus by $0.01 and reflected roughly a 230-basis-point improvement, despite a relatively tepid top line; guidance is also well above forecasts. The revenue and earnings ranges for Q4 line up with consensus at their low ends, implying that "as-expected" results would be the worst-case outcome.
Analysts and Institutions Point to Higher Prices for MCHP Stock
The analyst sentiment reset in 2025 weighed on the stock for much of the year. Trends shifted late in Q4 2025 and strengthened after the 2026 guidance update. Early updates tracked by MarketBeat include several reaffirmed ratings and higher price targets, extending the bullish momentum.
MarketBeat data shows coverage rose in January 2026, sentiment firmed with several Buy ratings added, and revisions trending toward the high end of target ranges. As of early February, the consensus target is about $85—a double-digit gain from current levels—while high-end targets imply up to roughly 35% additional upside.
Institutional trends matter too. Institutions sold throughout 2025, including in Q4 when MCHP hit long-term lows, but they began buying again in January 2026. Institutions own more than 90% of the stock, providing a strong support base; continued accumulation from this group would likely lift the share price into the high end of analysts' ranges by mid-year.
MCHP Stock Price Is Amid Reversal
MCHP stock has been volatile, but the chart shows notable constructive signs, including the November 2025 bounce that established support at a higher level. If the market is forming a Double-Bottom pattern, the second bounce signals a stronger market that could advance in 2026. The key resistance is near the pattern's baseline, around $80; a break above $80 would likely trigger robust upside targets. The technical outlook implies a move roughly equal to the Double-Bottom's magnitude—more than $40 and greater than 100% upside from the pattern low.
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