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GE Vernova's Q4 Was Strong—But the Backlog Number Matters More
Written by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 1/31/2026.
At a Glance
- GE Vernova is already up considerably in 2026 after nearly doubling in value last year.
- The company's Q4 report confirmed investor optimism, as the company's orders and backlog soared.
- Despite trading at a high valuation multiple, the company's impressive demand and cash flow projections are hard to ignore.
Power and electrification company GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) was a standout performer in 2025, delivering a total return of approximately 99%.
Shares are already up by almost 10% in 2026, buoyed by the company's latest earnings report.
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Watch the video to get the ticker nowGE Vernova continues to see explosive demand in its Power and Electrification segments, driving the company's backlog to historic levels.
However, with shares trading at a significant premium to the overall market and the industrials sector, the company's results warrant close examination to assess its outlook.
GEV Beats on Revenue, Sees Large Tax Benefit
GE Vernova released its Q4 2025 earnings before the market opened on Jan. 28. It posted sales of just under $11 billion, up 3.8% year over year, and easily beat estimates of $10.2 billion, which had implied a 3.4% revenue decline.
The company also posted a massive beat on earnings per share (EPS), with EPS of $13.39 versus estimates of $2.99. Much of that outperformance reflected a $2.9 billion tax benefit that boosted net income. Absent that benefit, EPS would have been near or below estimates.
That tax benefit was a one-time, non-cash item and is not material to the company's operating outlook. That helps explain why GEV shares rose only 2.7% on the day of the release despite the huge EPS beat.
Orders, Backlog, Margins and Guidance Continue to Show Strength
GEV's underlying metrics also impressed. Orders increased to $22.2 billion, a 43% rise versus $14.6 billion just one quarter earlier. The company also saw its backlog rise by $15 billion to $150 billion.
The Power and Electrification segments largely drove this, with orders up 50% and 45%, respectively, compared with Q3 2025. Backlogs in those segments rose 12% and 15% over the same period. In short, GE Vernova is receiving orders far faster than it can fill them. Its roughly 2x book-to-bill ratio — the value of products and services customers agreed to receive in the future was about double GEV's revenue during the quarter — provides strong visibility into future sales.
The company also achieved notable profitability improvements. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin rose 40 basis points to 10.7%. Over the full year, GEV's free cash flow increased 118% to $3.7 billion.
GEV raised its guidance to reflect the planned acquisition of GE Prolec, which it expects to close on Feb. 2. It now expects to generate $56 billion in revenue by 2028, up from prior guidance of $52 billion, and anticipates cumulative free cash flow of more than $24 billion from 2025–2028.
Updated Targets Imply +15% Upside After Stellar 2025
Wall Street analysts materially upgraded their forecasts after the earnings report. Citigroup raised its price target to about $779, and TD Cowen lifted its target to roughly $780.
The MarketBeat consensus price target on GE Vernova sits just above $731, implying roughly 2% upside versus the stock's Jan. 29 closing price. However, price targets updated between Jan. 28 and Jan. 29 average about $842, which would suggest roughly 17% upside.
GEV's forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is about 54x. This is more than double the S&P 500's forward P/E of 22x and the S&P 500 industrial sector's forward P/E of 25x. Despite the premium valuation, robust demand and strong expected free cash flow growth make GE Vernova look reasonably attractive. Still, given its rich valuation, any unexpected setback could exert significant downward pressure on the stock.
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